This Fantasy Life

Week 4 College Top 25

Eric Williams — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 22:28:39 +0000

What a week in college football. Lots of upsets and close games around the college landscape. Several teams began conference play last week and even more this week. We’re learning that there is more parity in college football than we thought and if Florida and Texas falter, it will set up a BCS scandal for the ages. Here’s my updated top 25 with thoughts on each team.

Rank. (My Previous Rank) Team Record
1. (2) Texas, 4-0: The throttling of UTEP displayed what Texas can do when they don’t start out slow
2. (1) Florida, 4-0: The Gators have several questions that need to be answered. We will know more about Tebow in the next two weeks before they face LSU. What we won’t know is who will step up and take some weight off of Tebow’s shoulders.
3. (3) Alabama, 4-0: The Crimson Tide has been steamrolling opponents since their week 1 win over Virginia Tech.
4. (7) LSU, 4-0: LSU was one team to escape a close call in a conference game. Their defense is tough and will need to be in the next couple of weeks.
5. (8) Boise State, 4-0: That week 1 win over Oregon is looking better now, eh? This team has a solid defense and an efficient offense. If they run the table, a lot of talk will happen with all the one-loss teams we have now.
6. (11) Virginia Tech, 3-1: So far they’ve played #5 Alabama, Marshall, #19 Nebraska and #9 Miami. Only Miami can claim a tougher gauntlet. They will be a force for the rest of the season.
7. (10) Oklahoma, 3-1: The Sooners get Sam Bradford back soon, just in time for conference play. They can’t afford to drop another one, if they still aspire to play in the BCS Title Game.
8. (9) Ohio State, 3-1: I’m not one that believes in ranking teams purely based on who won or who lost. That’s why Ohio State is here and not USC, cause USC’s only loss is much more embarrassing.
9. (14) Cincinnati, 4-0: This offense is potent, and they are quietly creeping into the BCS Title discussion, while many thought that the Big East was weak.
10. (12) TCU, 3-0: A close call at Clemson, but good teams win those games.
11. (5) Mississippi, 3-1: Welcome to conference play Ole Miss. Jevan Snead looked horrible on Thursday night as South Carolina thoroughly handled the Rebels.
12. (18) USC, 3-1: Congratulations USC on beating teams that you’re supposed to beat.
13. (15) Oklahoma State, 3-1: So you beat Grambling State. The only reason you’re moving up is because teams above you faltered.
14. (16) Kansas, 4-0: The offense is clicking. The defense is improving. KU probably won’t be as lucky in a close game like that against a conference opponent.
15. (NR) Iowa, 4-0: What happens when you punch a top-5 team in the mouth, their a conference opponent and its at their stadium? You get some respect.
16. (4) Penn State, 3-1: Apparently Iowa has PSU’s number over that last 10 years. It was tough weather, but the Nittany Lions conservative play ended up killing them in this one.
17. (19) Georgia Tech, 3-1: The Yellow Jackets made quick work of conference opponent North Carolina.
18. (17) Georgia, 3-1: A close scare by Arizona State leaves me with question marks about the Bulldogs.
19. (NR) Oregon, 3-1: The Ducks looked like a top-10 team as they systematically dismantled California 42-3.
20. (13) Miami, 2-1: They looked horrible against Virginia Tech, but it was on the road. And they’ve proven a little something in the last 2 games against Florida State and Georgia Tech.
21. (20) Houston, 3-0: I can’t understand why Houston jumped to #12 for beating unranked Texas Tech. That win was gift wrapped by Mike Leach’s red zone blunder.
22. (21) Nebraska, 3-1: An easy win. The Cornhuskers need consistency as they enter conference play.
23. (NR) Michigan, 4-0: I hope they have that bad play out of their system as Indiana almost upset them. Sidenote: The Michigan interception at the end of the 4th quarter was a bad call. You can’t pull the ball out of his hands rolling around on the ground. Once both guys hit the ground the play should have been called dead.
24. (23) Missouri, 4-0: Looked a little shaky against Nevada, but Blaine Gabbert has the Tigers going in the right direction.
25. (6) California, 3-1: California looked as if they never showed up to the game against Oregon. Possibly they were caught looking ahead to the game against USC.
25.

Posted in NCAA Football, Rankings

Week 3 NFL Picks

Eric Williams — Sun, 27 Sep 2009 05:21:36 +0000

Last week I went 10-6 with my picks mostly because some teams have figured out how to close out the close games (Dallas, Tennessee, San Diego, Pittsburgh) and my other two losses just got flat out beat down (New England and Cleveland). Here come the week 3 picks along with the fantasy players to sit or start.

Washington (1-1) at Detroit (0-2)
My pick: Detroit
Fantasy X-Factors: Last week was supposed to be a statistical eruption for Redskins QB Jason Campbell but they couldn’t do anything against the St. Louis defense. Avoid playing Antwaan Randel El, Santana Moss or Chris Cooley until Campbell shows he can pick apart lesser teams. I’m intrigued by the Lions because they are markedly improved over last year. Their linebackers are solid and their offense puts up points. The Redskins have a solid defense, especially against the run with Albert Haynseworth so avoid playing Kevin Smith unless you are short on running backs. It’s always better to field someone guaranteed to touch the ball. Matthew Stafford is a risky play while Calvin Johnson is a no-brainer.

Green Bay (1-1) at St. Louis (0-2)
My pick: Green Bay
Fantasy X-Factors: Green Bay’s offense struggled to find rhythm against Cincinnati. Aaron Rodgers is a solid play mostly because the Packers rely on their passing game. Ryan Grant is a decent runner outside the tackles, but he won’t intimidate defenses to make them load the box. Donald Driver and Greg Jennings are good plays, obviously Jennings being the stronger play of the two. For St. Louis, Steven Jackson is a must start regardless of the opponent. Sit Donnie Avery and monitor his progression for the next couple of weeks. If he doesn’t produce he is quickly becoming a “drop” candidate.

San Fransisco (2-0) at Minnesota (2-0)
My pick: Minnesota
Fantasy X-Factors: Frank Gore had a monster game against Seattle last week, but don’t hold your breath against Minnesota. The Vikings have one of the top run defenses so it could be long day for Gore owners. Avoid anyone involved in the San Fransisco passing game until they can show they belong in the NFL. Obviously for the Vikings, Adrian Peterson is the offense. Sit Chester Taylor since its too risky to play him. Peterson was rested this week because of his back, but he will still take a large majority of the carries. The Viking receivers’ value is limited with Brett Favre since they want Favre to manage the game, not win it. If Peterson goes down, Favre and the receivers value skyrockets.

Atlanta (2-0) at New England (1-1)
My pick: New England
Fantasy X-Factors: Call me crazy, but Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and the Patriots weren’t too happy about losing to the Jets. Being at Foxboro, I think the Patriots will be too much to handle. However, the Falcons should put up points. Michael Turner, Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White are all must plays. Matt Ryan is a solid option each week because of his arsenal, but I would only play him here if your other QB (if you have one) is facing a tougher match-up.

Tennessee (0-2) at New York Jets (2-0)
My pick: Tennessee
Fantasy X-Factors: This one’s a gut check, I just feel that the Jets were so focused on beating the Patriots that they are primed for an upset. Chris Johnson had a monster week last week, but shouldn’t dominate as much against a stingy Jets defense, while LenDale White might benefit from a close fought game. Nate Washington found the endzone but isn’t up to full speed meaning the yardage will come later. Mark Sanchez, Thomas Jones, Jerrico Cotchery and Chansi Stuckey face a tough matchup. I would sit Sanchez and Stuckey, and start Jones and Cotchery. Both defenses are decent plays this week.

Kansas City (0-2) at Philadelphia (1-1)
My pick: Philadelphia
Fantasy X-Factors: Don’t start him, but keep your eye on Michael Vick this week. If he performs admirably he might be worth a pick-up in deep leagues and Philly might elect to let McNabb rest more. Continue to start Brian Westbrook and Desean Jackson. I would sit Kevin Kolb unless you’re other QB has a much more difficult matchup, and Brent Celek is a gut play. The Eagles D/ST should be a decent play as well. Last week Brees and the Saints tore up the Eagles, but Matt Cassel is not Brees and doesn’t have as many receivers. Start Dwayne Bowe because he is Cassel’s only target, and play Larry Johnson, unless you are particularly deep at RB.

New York Giants (2-0) at Tampa Bay (0-2)
My pick: New York Giants
Fantasy X-Factors: The Giants wide receivers have played much better than expected, especially while dealing with injuries. Domenik Hixon and Hakeem Nicks are injured, but Steve Smith and Mario Manningham have given Eli Manning the necessary firepower to win games. Start those three. Run with Brandon Jacobs and go with your gut on Ahmad Bradshaw. Not being a bye week, there should be other options out there. For Tampa, Derrick Ward has played outstanding so far, but he’s facing a very tough run defense, use him if you have few options. The same goes for Cadillac Williams. Also, tight end Kellen Winslow is becoming the preferred target for the Bucs, so use him freely.

Cleveland (0-2) at Baltimore (2-0)
My pick: Baltimore
Fantasy X-Factors: It seems that Le’Ron McClain is quickly becoming the odd man in out in the Ravens backfield. Willis McGahee and Ray Rice have been productive so far. Start Joe Flacco and Todd Heap, wide receiver Mark Clayton is a flex play this week. As always, go with the Ravens defense. The Browns offense is abysmal, so avoid all the Browns except Braylon Edwards. Play him this week only if you are shallow at WR.

Jacksonville (0-2) at Houston (1-1)
My pick: Houston
Fantasy X-Factors: Don’t expect a statistical onslaught every week from the Texans, although I expect more games like Week 2 than Week 1. Start Maurice Jones-Drew as you would every week, and go with David Garrard if your choices are slim. I don’t expect much for Garrard, but against the Texans he could have a surprisingly huge game. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are must starts, while I would suggest caution when using Steve Slaton. Slaton hasn’t been the same as he was in 2008, so if you’re deep at RB, consider benching him this week to see if he finally rebounds.

New Orleans (2-0) at Buffalo (1-1)
My pick: New Orleans
Fantasy X-Factor: Put away the brown bags Saints fans, this offense is facing a soft defense in Week 3. Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey are the only must plays this week. The Saints backfield is a mess right now. Reggie Bush while he is a dynamic player, is not fantasy relevant right now, Pierre Thomas keeps saying he’s ready, but has yet to carry the ball, Mike Bell exploded in the first 2 weeks only to get injured and Heath Evans has poached a few TDs so far in 2009. Sit any Saints RB this week. Trent Edwards is a solid play this week against the porous Saints defense. Also must-starts are Fred Jackson, Terrell Owens and Lee Evans. Avoid both team defenses like the plague.

Chicago (1-1) at Seattle (1-1)
My pick: Chicago
Fantasy X-Factors: Raise your hand if you picked Matt Forte in the top 5. Raise your hand if you think Jay Cutler has had an adverse effect on Forte. The Bears think of themselves as a passing team, using Forte between the tackles. Forte’s value is in the open field and I think he should see plenty this week in Seattle. Start Cutler and Forte. Greg Olsen is also a decent play. Sit all Bears wide receivers except Johnny Knox and use them only as flex plays. In Seattle, Matt Hasselbeck is looking to sit out this week, being replaced by Seneca Wallace. Do not start either. This effects the value of Julius Jones, T.J. Houshmanzadeh and John Carlson since the Bears defense will like not respect the QB play as much.

Miami (0-2) at San Diego (1-1)
My pick: Miami
Fantasy X-Factors: I like Miami here. They gave the Colts a run last week and I really like Ronnie Brown in the Wildcat offense. Of course in Miami the QB and WR value are virtually nonexistent. In San Diego, LaDainian Tomlinson looks to be out this week, which means good things for Darren Sproles owners. Start Philip Rivers, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson as normal.

Pittsburgh (1-1) at Cincinnati (1-1)
My pick: Pittsburgh
Fantasy X-Factors: Avoid the Steelers running backs until they show some promise. The Bengals defense did a decent job against the Broncos and Packers run games. However, do start Ben Roethlisberger, Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward. Carson Palmer is intriguing because both the Titans and Bears had success passing on the Steelers. Put Palmer and Chad Ochocinco in your lineup. Only use Chris Henry as a flex play since he hasn’t yet carried over his preseason play into the regular season. Cedric Benson should only be used if necessary.

Denver (2-0) at Oakland (1-1)
My pick: Oakland
Fantasy X-Factors: Avoid using Knowshon Moreno for another week until he is more healthy. The Raiders defense is decent, but Correll Buckhalter makes for an intriguing play. Use your gut when determining to play Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal. For Oakland, their offense relies on Darren McFadden and Michael Bush, wait for JaMarcus Russell to come into his own before using any Raider wide receivers.

Indianapolis (2-0) at Arizona (1-1)
My pick: Arizona
Fantasy X-Factors: This game points to a shootout. Look for Peyton Manning to connect with Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, consider fielding Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon as flex plays, with Garcon having the better deep ball skills. In Arizona, getting Steve Breaston back had a huge impact on their offense. The surprise of the Cardinals is the amount of receiving yards that Tim Hightower is racking up. Continue to start Hightower. Also, starting Kurt Warner, Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin should be a no-brainer.

Carolina (0-2) at Dallas (1-1)
My pick: Dallas
Fantasy X-Factors: So Tony Romo laid a stinker on Sunday night last week. What better gift than getting Carolina at home to redeem yourself. Start Romo, Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton and Jason Witten. Marion Barber might be healthy enough to play, but don’t risk it if you have the depth. Felix Jones should have a field day against the Panthers. Jake Delhomme silences some critics last week with his play, but I’m not sold yet. The Cowboys have yielded lots of rushing yards so far, so feel comfortable using DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart. Also, if you own Steve Smith, play him.

Posted in Football, NFL Picks

NCAA Week 4 Predictions

Eric Williams — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 04:06:22 +0000

Week 4…the last week for most non-conference games which means after this week teams like Florida and Texas have to quit running from quality opponents. In the meantime Miami is looking to take on its 3rd ranked opponent in as many games (#18 Florida State, #14 Georgia Tech and now #11 Virginia Tech) and they have Oklahoma coming up the week after. California faces a test in Oregon to prove they belong at the top of the Pac-10. I think Houston falls to Texas Tech this week after watching Tech play in Austin, although I think Houston is better than people think. I think BYU barely gets by Colorado State. And for some more upsets I’m going out on a limb. For the 3rd week in a row I am picking North Carolina to lose. Also, Arizona State to pull off a shocker at Georgia and Stanford to defeat Washington.

#1 Florida 42 at Kentucky 10
#2 Texas 42 vs. UTEP 17
#3 Alabama 35 vs. Arkansas 21
#4 Mississippi 28 at South Carolina 17
#5 Penn State 21 vs. Iowa 10
#6 California 27 at Oregon 17
#7 LSU 21 at Mississippi State 13
#8 Boise State 49 at Bowling Green 14
#9 Miami (FL) 17 at #11 Virginia Tech 21
#10 Oklahoma – Bye week
#12 USC 42 vs. Washington State 3
#13 Ohio State 28 vs. Illinois 17
#14 Cincinnati 42 vs. Fresno State 24
#15 TCU 31 at Clemson 17
#16 Oklahoma State 49 vs. Grambling State 10
#17 Houston 31 vs. Texas Tech 42
#18 Florida State 27 vs. South Florida 17
#19 BYU 24 vs. Colorado State 21
#20 Kansas 38 vs. Southern Mississippi 21
#21 Georgia 21 vs. Arizona State 27
#22 North Carolina 24 at Georgia Tech 31 If I miss on this again I swear I will pick North Carolina next week.
#23 Michigan 35 vs. Indiana 7
#24 Washington 21 at Stanford 34
#25 Nebraska 28 vs. Louisiana-Layafette 3

Posted in NCAA Football, Predictions

Heisman Watch

Eric Williams — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 03:34:29 +0000

I was checking out the weekly barrage of information in the sports world, and I came across the following two pieces of content over at ESPN.

Firstly, the Forde Yard Dash, written by Pat Forde, is one of my favorite weekly articles because he covers a large swathe of the college football landscape. While reading this article he discusses two specific AP pollsters that ranked Florida at #5 and why they are not as crazy as most would presume. Each AP pollster explains that most rankings (Florida, Texas and USC) are set based on what college preview magazines say back in April. So because Florida garnered pre-pre-season #1 accolades most voters are on auto-pilot when they fill out their Top 25 each week and automatically put Florida and Texas as 1 and 2 respectively.

Then I clicked over to check out ESPN’s “Heisman Watch” and got to thinking, the same theory applies here. Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy were equally amazing in 2008 and therefore were on the preseason watch list. But once the games start, voters should be focusing strictly on 2009 stats, right?

Based on 2009 stats, Tebow ranks 7th on QB Passer Rating behind qualified candidates in Jimmy Clausen (2), Jacory Harris (3) and Case Keenum (4) while McCoy ranks 38th in Passer Rating. Now throw out Clausen because of the Michigan loss and let’s compare just these 4 QBs adding in their all-purpose stats, not to say other QBs should not be in the conversation.

Tebow – 540 passing yards, 5 TD, 1 INT, 170.45 rating; 148 rushing yards, 3 TD; best win versus Tennessee
McCoy – 859 passing yards, 6 TD, 4 INT, 144.51 rating; 46 rushing yards, 1 TD; best win versus Texas Tech
Harris – 656 passing yards, 5 TD, 2 INT, 184.08 rating; -3 rushing yards, 1 TD; 2 wins over ranked opponents (Florida State and Georgia Tech)
Keenum – 725 passing yards, 7 TD, 1 INT, 180.26 rating; 16 rushing yards, 2 TD; win over #5 (at time) Oklahoma State on the road

Sure, only Keenum has more TDs than Tebow, but Harris and Keenum have done more against stiffer competition, yet they have fight and scrap for the votes while Tebow is handed them for beating Charleston-Southern, Troy and Tennessee.

Other candidate comparison (non-QB) for Jahvid Best, Dez Bryant, Ryan Broyles and Michael Floyd. Best and Bryant receive votes (and have been since preseason) but do they deserve? And Eric Berry, talented safety for Tennessee, receives votes as well based largely on his 2008 performance (72 total tackles, 7 INT, 2 TD), but what has he done in 2009?

Best, RB – 412 rushing yards, 7.8 avg, 8 TD; 59 receiving yards, 8.4 avg, 1 TD; scored 5 TDs against Minnesota
Bryant, WR – 323 receiving yards, 19.0 avg, 4 TD; 111 punt return yards, 37 avg, 1 TD; 43 kick return yards, 21.5 avg, 0 TD
Floyd, WR – 358 receiving yards, 27.5 avg, 5 TD; Floyd was injured this weekend and will most likely miss a lot (if not all) of the season.
Broyles, WR – 309 receiving yards, 14.0 avg, 7 TD
Berry, S – 24 total tackles (17 solo, 7 assist), 1 INT; yet he is currently 6th in ESPN’s Heisman Watch

Based on the stats above, Best deserves the votes he receives and depending how much stock you place on special teams Bryant deserved less than Floyd.

If I had to rank my top 5 Heisman contenders it would be as follows:

1. Jahvid Best, RB, California
2. Case Keenum, QB, Houston
3. Jacory Harris, QB, Miami
4. Tim Tebow, QB, Florida
5. Ryan Broyles, WR, Oklahoma

Do I think that McCoy, Bryant and others deserve their accolades? Yes. But the Heisman contest is based on statistical performance during the current season, NOT years past.

Posted in Heisman Watch, NCAA Football

Big 12 Thoughts After Week 3

Eric Williams — Tue, 22 Sep 2009 02:59:12 +0000

A lot has happened in the much ballyhooed Big 12 conference. The conference was supposed to challenge the SEC for supreme dominance, but has faltered several times so far.

Sam Bradford went down in the first half of the the Sooners first game. The Sooners BCS Title hopes are not dead thanks to the faltering of teams like USC, Ohio State, BYU, Oklahoma State and others

Oklahoma State came out the gates and rocked Georgia. The letdown against Houston in Stillwater was obviously a case of overlooking an opponent following a big win

Texas hasn’t seemed invincible early in the 2009 season

Colorado opened with losses to Colorado State and Toledo; so much for 10 wins Dan Hawkins

Iowa State and Kansas State are struggling against weaker non-conference opponents

Baylor surprised many with a win over Wake Forest and then gave it back with a close loss to Connecticut

Kansas has shown its dominating offense and surprisingly strong defense, albeit against weaker opponents

Texas Tech’s offense is not skipping a beat and their defense is once again decent

Nebraska’s offense has sputtered some, while their defense is as stout as expected; the close loss at Virginia Tech cannot make Bo Pelini happy

Missouri’s offense has been surprisingly efficient, especially in their season opening win over Illinois

Texas A&M has improved, but it remains a question if they will climb out of the gutter

The Big 12 has several big non-conference games that can redeem the respect from the country. Kansas faces Southern Miss and Texas Tech faces Houston this upcoming weekend. Other games in the future include: West Virginia vs. Colorado, Miami (FL) vs. Oklahoma. Other than that, conference games are approaching and it’s important for the strength of the conference the top teams win the games they are supposed to. In the North, it should be a 3-team race between Kansas, Nebraska and Missouri. In the South, Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, although Texas Tech could mess it up for one of those teams.

Below is my 1st Team All-Big XII through the first 3 weeks. I exclude OL, since I don’t follow that closely enough to be able to provide an accurate position.

QB: Blaine Gabbert, Missouri
RB: Roy Helu, Jr., Nebraska
RB: Jake Sharp, Kansas
WR: Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma
WR: Dez Bryant, Oklahoma State
TE: Mike McNeill, Nebraska

DE: Maxwell Onyegbule, Kansas
DT: Ndamukong Suh, Nebraska
DT: Jeremy Beal, Oklahoma
DE: Jake Laptad, Kansas
LB: Joe Pawalek, Baylor
LB: Ryan Reynolds, Oklahoma
LB: Sean Weatherspoon, Missouri
CB: Trent Hunter, Texas A&M
CB: Quentin Carter, Oklahoma
S: David Sims, Iowa State
S: Von Miller, Texas A&M

K: Grant Ressel, Missouri
P: Quinn Sharp, Oklahoma State
KR: Perrish Cox, Oklahoma State
PR: Jordan Shipley, Texas

Posted in Big 12 North, Big 12 South, NCAA Football