Week 3 NFL Picks

Last week I went 10-6 with my picks mostly because some teams have figured out how to close out the close games (Dallas, Tennessee, San Diego, Pittsburgh) and my other two losses just got flat out beat down (New England and Cleveland). Here come the week 3 picks along with the fantasy players to sit or start.

Washington (1-1) at Detroit (0-2)
My pick: Detroit
Fantasy X-Factors: Last week was supposed to be a statistical eruption for Redskins QB Jason Campbell but they couldn’t do anything against the St. Louis defense. Avoid playing Antwaan Randel El, Santana Moss or Chris Cooley until Campbell shows he can pick apart lesser teams. I’m intrigued by the Lions because they are markedly improved over last year. Their linebackers are solid and their offense puts up points. The Redskins have a solid defense, especially against the run with Albert Haynseworth so avoid playing Kevin Smith unless you are short on running backs. It’s always better to field someone guaranteed to touch the ball. Matthew Stafford is a risky play while Calvin Johnson is a no-brainer.

Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 1 Results: 11-5 on game picks. I missed on the Bengals cause of Stokley’s tip drill; Texans, Redskins and Buccaneers cause I’m stupid; and Cardinals cause Warner forgot how to throw the ball.

On to week 2.

Carolina (0-1) at Atlanta (1-0)
My pick: Atlanta
Fantasy X-Factors: DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart. Look for Carolina to take the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands and lean heavily on the two-headed backfield. It’s hard to say “sit” Steve Smith but don’t expect huge numbers with Delhomme this week. Atlanta’s offense didn’t excel last week as Miami was focused on stopping Michael Turner, who should rebound with a much stronger week and find pay dirt. The Falcons D/ST is a tempting play this week given the number of turnovers Carolina committed in week 1.

Minnesota (1-0) at Detroit (0-1)
My pick: Minnesota
Fantasy X-Factors: Obviously Adrian Peterson should dominate against a leaky Detroit defense. I would still keep Chester Taylor on the bench. It’s just too risky to play a back-up hoping the game is out of hand that he can poach some carries. Since it is Detroit, Minnesota might give Brett Favre more leeway with the passing game, which can only help Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe. For Detroit, they should be able to build on the connection between Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Kevin Smith should still start since he is a #2 quality fantasy starter.

For a very funny video on the Detroit Lions, check out the link below:
NFL Players Mentor Troubled Detroit Lions

Week 1 NFL Picks

Tennessee at Pittsburgh
My pick: Pittsburgh
Fantasy X-Factor: Pittsburgh D/ST – I’m a little hesitant on either offense in this game. Both teams field strong defenses and the quarterbacks are more game managers than stat producers. Bank on either defense providing a decent statistical outing.

Miami at Atlanta
My pick: Atlanta
Fantasy X-Factor: Tony Gonzalez – Gonzalez will produce regularly around 10-14 fantasy points a game, but the bigger question will be red zone production. He’s a big target lining up against linebackers. How often will Atlanta target Gonzalez rather than handing the reigns to Michael Turner?

Denver at Cincinnati
My pick: Cinncinnati
Fantasy X-Factor: Cedric Benson – A friend of mine thinks Benson will be the sleeper-of-the-year. Denver is in a transitional period right now and the Bengals may try to establish their running game early in the season to show opponents they are not a passing-only offense.

Minnesota at Cleveland
My pick: Minnesota
Fantasy X-Factor: Brett Favre – Not as a statistical giant, mind you. The Jets needed Favre last year to score points, so he threw, alot. The Vikings will want Favre to manage the game and make defenses respect the pass. Respecting the pass will put fewer defenders in the box, giving Peterson an open field.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
My pick: Indianapolis
Fantasy X-Factor: Peyton Manning – With an entire new coaching staff and the departure of Marvin Harrison this will be a sampling of Indy’s offense. Will it be potent like it once was? And will either Joseph Addai or Donald Brown provide some stability to make defenses respect the run more?

Detroit at New Orleans
My pick: New Orleans
Fantasy X-Factor: New Orleans D/ST – The defense? That’s what most of you are thinking. Last year the defense was abysmal and couldn’t stop opponents. Not stopping opponents means your offense is on the field frequently. If the defense improves, Drew Brees and his cadre will have less time on the field to rack up those numbers.

Dallas at Tampa Bay
My pick: Tampa Bay
Fantasy X-Factor: Tony Romo – How good will the remaining receivers be without T.O.? T.O. may be a headache, but he’s a headache that gets double-teamed. The onus will be on Roy Williams to finally play up to his potential and Patrick Crayton to provide Romo with the weapons he needs.

Philadelphia at Carolina
My pick: Philadelphia
Fantasy X-Factor: DeAngelo Williams – For a guy with only one real solid year, getting drafted in the top 5-6 players, this has BUST written all over it. How he performs will showcase how much of last year was a fluke and how much the team will rely on Delhomme and Jonathon Stewart.

Kansas City at Baltimore
My pick: Baltimore
Fantasy X-Factor: Baltimore D/ST – This is not a desirable game for fantasy stats. KC’s offense couldn’t really find the consistency last year, and Baltimore’s running back timeshare is never ideal. This might be the last year the Baltimore D will be relevant as they are getting old.

New York Jets at Houston
My pick: Houston
Fantasy X-Factor: Matt Schaub – If he stays healthy, the Texans could have a very potent offense. With Johnson, Daniels and Slaton they will keep defenses on their toes. Lose Schaub, and the defenses will load up the box on Slaton and force teams to beat them with the pass.

Washington at New York Giants
My pick: Washington
Fantasy X-Factor: Eli Manning – How effective will the passing game be without Plaxico? The Giants have some talented receivers, but they are young, and for the most part inexperienced. How Eli performs with the re-tooled offense will tell fantasy owners alot.

San Fransisco at Arizona
My pick: Arizona
Fantasy X-Factor: Kurt Warner – I have been skeptical about Warner since after his last good year in St. Louis he was injured, and after his decent year in New York he got injured the next season. He was dominant last year and he’s older, so I’m wary of him dropping off. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin’s value is directly tied to Warner. Leinart does not yet possess the tools to run the Arizona offense.

St. Louis at Seattle
My pick: Seattle
Fantasy X-Factor: T.J. Houshmanzadeh – He finally provides Matt Hasselbeck with the big target. Hasselbeck will have to return to pre-2007 form for the Seahawks to be a force, but with talented WRs it is possible. Can Julius Jones provide a decent running game to help?

Chicago at Green Bay
My pick: Green Bay
Fantasy X-Factor: Jay Cutler – For all the hoopla about the Bears bringing in the Pro Bowl Jay Cutler, let me remind you that his #1 wide receiver is 5’10″. The Bears gave up the 2009 1st and 3rd rd picks, 2010 1st rd pick and Kyle Orton for Cutler. That’s way too much for a guy with 0 post-season games and a season best 8-8 record (with better receivers). I don’t like the Bears offense, but Cutler might prove me wrong.

Buffalo at New England
My pick: New England
Fantasy X-Factor: Tom Brady – This is a no-brainer? How well has the knee healed and will the offense be like 2007 and 2008 without coordinator Josh McDaniels?

San Diego at Oakland
My pick: San Diego
Fantasy X-Factor: San Diego D/ST – Will the return of Shawne Merriman make the Chargers one of the most feared defenses like they were supposed to be in 2008? Also, how will the handle the running attack of Oakland?