Week 3 NFL Picks

Last week I went 10-6 with my picks mostly because some teams have figured out how to close out the close games (Dallas, Tennessee, San Diego, Pittsburgh) and my other two losses just got flat out beat down (New England and Cleveland). Here come the week 3 picks along with the fantasy players to sit or start.

Washington (1-1) at Detroit (0-2)
My pick: Detroit
Fantasy X-Factors: Last week was supposed to be a statistical eruption for Redskins QB Jason Campbell but they couldn’t do anything against the St. Louis defense. Avoid playing Antwaan Randel El, Santana Moss or Chris Cooley until Campbell shows he can pick apart lesser teams. I’m intrigued by the Lions because they are markedly improved over last year. Their linebackers are solid and their offense puts up points. The Redskins have a solid defense, especially against the run with Albert Haynseworth so avoid playing Kevin Smith unless you are short on running backs. It’s always better to field someone guaranteed to touch the ball. Matthew Stafford is a risky play while Calvin Johnson is a no-brainer.

Week 2 NFL Picks

Week 1 Results: 11-5 on game picks. I missed on the Bengals cause of Stokley’s tip drill; Texans, Redskins and Buccaneers cause I’m stupid; and Cardinals cause Warner forgot how to throw the ball.

On to week 2.

Carolina (0-1) at Atlanta (1-0)
My pick: Atlanta
Fantasy X-Factors: DeAngelo Williams and Jonathon Stewart. Look for Carolina to take the ball out of Jake Delhomme’s hands and lean heavily on the two-headed backfield. It’s hard to say “sit” Steve Smith but don’t expect huge numbers with Delhomme this week. Atlanta’s offense didn’t excel last week as Miami was focused on stopping Michael Turner, who should rebound with a much stronger week and find pay dirt. The Falcons D/ST is a tempting play this week given the number of turnovers Carolina committed in week 1.

Minnesota (1-0) at Detroit (0-1)
My pick: Minnesota
Fantasy X-Factors: Obviously Adrian Peterson should dominate against a leaky Detroit defense. I would still keep Chester Taylor on the bench. It’s just too risky to play a back-up hoping the game is out of hand that he can poach some carries. Since it is Detroit, Minnesota might give Brett Favre more leeway with the passing game, which can only help Bernard Berrian and Visanthe Shiancoe. For Detroit, they should be able to build on the connection between Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson. Kevin Smith should still start since he is a #2 quality fantasy starter.

For a very funny video on the Detroit Lions, check out the link below:
NFL Players Mentor Troubled Detroit Lions

Week 1 Heroes and Zeroes

Week 1 Heroes

Quarterbacks:
Drew Brees, NO: 358 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT. Brees picked up right where he left off in 2008. The Saints defense obviously still has room for improvement, which means Brees and Co. will have to shoulder the team and outscore rather than outplay opponents. Connecting with Shockey for 2 TDs is positive since they had 0 TD connections last season.

Tony Romo, DAL: 353 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT. T.O. who? Romo connected with Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton and Miles Austin as the Cowboys picked apart the Buccaneers. Romo may have tweaked his ankle during the game but his performance put to rest worries that he was a product of having T.O. on his team. It’s also a good sign that he didn’t have to rely on Jason Witten to move the ball.

Tom Brady, NE: 378 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT. Brady returned strong after his 2008 season ended in Week 1 with an ACL injury. The offense sputtered a little until the 4th quarter. A key defensive stop allowed Brady to engineer the game-winning drive against Buffalo.

Running Backs:
Adrian Peterson, MIN: 180 yards, 3 TD. Sure to be a staple as a top performer for 2009 Peterson had a slow first half, but exploded during the 2nd half as Cleveland tired. His final TD was pure will breaking 5 tackles then turning on the jets to outrun the remaining defenders.

Thomas Jones, NYJ: 107 yards, 2 TD. Jones is older than most of his counterparts around the league, but he is wildly effective. Having a rookie QB in Mark Sanchez, Jones production is key to the Jets success this season. His performance against the Texans was a sign that 2008 was not a fluke.

Julius Jones, SEA: 117 yards, 1 TD. I honestly never thought Jones would do anything in Seattle. We’ve been hearing about him for years since his days in Dallas. Every year expectations were not met, so I was pleasantly surprised when he performed as well as he did, even if it was against St. Louis.

Honorable mention: Cedric Benson, who returned to the spotlight with his performance against Denver, should be a decent fantasy starter the rest of the way.

Wide Receivers:
Reggie Wayne, IND: 162 yards, 1 TD. Wayne was one of the only bright spots in a sputtering Indy offense. Regardless he is a top NFL receiver with one of the top 5 quarterbacks throwing to him.

Patrick Crayton, DAL: 135 yards, 1 TD. Crayton is proving that he can provide a serviceable replacement for T.O. The Cowboys’ offense shouldn’t skip a beat with performance that Crayton turned in on Sunday.

Randy Moss, NE: 141 yards, 0 TD. Moss and Brady connected for 12 catches on Monday night, reassuring all their owners that a return to 2007 form is quite possible. The lack of finding the end zone is frustrating but no cause for concern.

Week 1 Zeroes

Quarterbacks:
Jake Delhomme, CAR: 73 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 1 FUML. Ouch! Carolina hired A.J. Feeley on Monday, so Delhomme is officially on the hot seat. Hope you have a decent back-up, since nobody should have counted on Jake as a #1 fantasy QB.

Matt Schaub, HOU: 166 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT. I missed on this one, although it’s only one week in. Houston’s offense was nonexistent which is surprising considering the weapons they have. Hopefully Schaub will turn the ship around in week 2.

Jay Cutler, CHI: 277 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT. The anointed one in Chicago came out slinging those guns. Apparently nobody gave him the memo about his receivers. They have deep threat capabilities, which was shown, but Cutler’s arrogance shown brighter. He’s the biggest high-risk, high-reward quarterback right now.

Running Backs:
Willie Parker, PIT: 13 carries, 19 yards, 0 TD. I know it was against Tennessee, but for a #1 running back that’s horrible.

Steve Slaton, HOU: 17 rushing yards, 35 receiving yards, 1 FUML. Slaton did not look anything like the 2008 version that garnered first-round draft accolades.

Matt Forte, CHI: 25 carries, 55 yards, 0 TD. The Bears must think that Cutler cures all ills. It was ridiculous how little (and unimaginable) Forte was used against Green Bay. He was targeted once, ONCE. This is a running back that had 63 receptions and 477 receiving yards last year. Forte is a good between the tackles back, but his value is as a hybrid. That’s what gave him a top-5 pick value.

Wide Receivers:
Eddie Royal, DEN: 2 receptions, 18 yards, 0 TD. As much as I don’t like Cutler, Royal’s (and Marshall’s) value greatly diminishes with Orton at QB. Orton simply doesn’t have the arm strength for deep throws, so Royal’s deep play speed is useless.

Steve Smith, CAR: 3 receptions, 21 yards, 0 TD. Smith had no chance with the way Delhomme performed against Philly.

Steve Breaston, ARI: Did Not Play. Breaston is included because the Cardinals gave all indications that he would play until game time when they swapped in Jerheme Urban. Many fantasy owners were counting on Breaston playing and when rosters locked he handicapped a lot of teams.

Week 1 Injury Report

A couple of big injuries happened, like every season, that will affect the fantasy landscape.

Brian Urlacher, LB; Chicago Bears: Out for season. This injury might not be of huge importance in traditional leagues, but it will still have an effect. The Packers were able to get the running game going while Urlacher was on the sidelines during Sunday night’s game. The Bears will have to find a new identity in Lance Briggs and Hunter Hillenmeyer. I’m not expecting the defense to crumble now, but losing one of the best linebackers can’t help a team. Urlacher’s talent for reading offenses will be sorely missed for the remainder of the season.

In Individual Defense Player leagues this could have a huge impact on a team. Luckily the LB position is very deep, but chance are Urlacher was one of your first IDP’s taken. Briggs is most likely gone as well, but Hillenmeyer should provide a decent replacement if your league is particularly deep. Hillenmeyer was the first LB off the bench, but without Urlacher he will undoubtedly play a larger role. And he has experience from the Super Bowl run a few years back.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR; Indianapolis Colts: 2-6 weeks. Gonzalez is probably Manning’s third target (after Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark) so this isn’t a huge loss. But many thought this would be a breakout year for Gonzalez with the departure of Marvin Harrison. He will return with half the season left, but he may not return to 100% immediately. This opens the door for Austin Collie in the Colts offense as that extra receiver for Manning. Collie will most likely be the hot pick-up this week if wasn’t already drafted in the final rounds of your draft.

Donovan McNabb, QB; Philadelphia Eagles: Questionable. It’s being reported as a ‘fractured rib’ and I can’t imagine that would be fun to play with. Even if he feels good enough to play next Sunday, I don’t see the Eagles choosing to do so. The Eagles offense will have to be firing on all cylinders when the Saints come to town because points will be scored in bunches. The good news is Kevin Kolb could be a sleeper play next week. With how bad the Saints defense is, Kolb might be able to steer the Eagles to victory with the talented playmakers he will have around him.

Week 1 NFL Picks

Tennessee at Pittsburgh
My pick: Pittsburgh
Fantasy X-Factor: Pittsburgh D/ST – I’m a little hesitant on either offense in this game. Both teams field strong defenses and the quarterbacks are more game managers than stat producers. Bank on either defense providing a decent statistical outing.

Miami at Atlanta
My pick: Atlanta
Fantasy X-Factor: Tony Gonzalez – Gonzalez will produce regularly around 10-14 fantasy points a game, but the bigger question will be red zone production. He’s a big target lining up against linebackers. How often will Atlanta target Gonzalez rather than handing the reigns to Michael Turner?

Denver at Cincinnati
My pick: Cinncinnati
Fantasy X-Factor: Cedric Benson – A friend of mine thinks Benson will be the sleeper-of-the-year. Denver is in a transitional period right now and the Bengals may try to establish their running game early in the season to show opponents they are not a passing-only offense.

Minnesota at Cleveland
My pick: Minnesota
Fantasy X-Factor: Brett Favre – Not as a statistical giant, mind you. The Jets needed Favre last year to score points, so he threw, alot. The Vikings will want Favre to manage the game and make defenses respect the pass. Respecting the pass will put fewer defenders in the box, giving Peterson an open field.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis
My pick: Indianapolis
Fantasy X-Factor: Peyton Manning – With an entire new coaching staff and the departure of Marvin Harrison this will be a sampling of Indy’s offense. Will it be potent like it once was? And will either Joseph Addai or Donald Brown provide some stability to make defenses respect the run more?

Detroit at New Orleans
My pick: New Orleans
Fantasy X-Factor: New Orleans D/ST – The defense? That’s what most of you are thinking. Last year the defense was abysmal and couldn’t stop opponents. Not stopping opponents means your offense is on the field frequently. If the defense improves, Drew Brees and his cadre will have less time on the field to rack up those numbers.

Dallas at Tampa Bay
My pick: Tampa Bay
Fantasy X-Factor: Tony Romo – How good will the remaining receivers be without T.O.? T.O. may be a headache, but he’s a headache that gets double-teamed. The onus will be on Roy Williams to finally play up to his potential and Patrick Crayton to provide Romo with the weapons he needs.

Philadelphia at Carolina
My pick: Philadelphia
Fantasy X-Factor: DeAngelo Williams – For a guy with only one real solid year, getting drafted in the top 5-6 players, this has BUST written all over it. How he performs will showcase how much of last year was a fluke and how much the team will rely on Delhomme and Jonathon Stewart.

Kansas City at Baltimore
My pick: Baltimore
Fantasy X-Factor: Baltimore D/ST – This is not a desirable game for fantasy stats. KC’s offense couldn’t really find the consistency last year, and Baltimore’s running back timeshare is never ideal. This might be the last year the Baltimore D will be relevant as they are getting old.

New York Jets at Houston
My pick: Houston
Fantasy X-Factor: Matt Schaub – If he stays healthy, the Texans could have a very potent offense. With Johnson, Daniels and Slaton they will keep defenses on their toes. Lose Schaub, and the defenses will load up the box on Slaton and force teams to beat them with the pass.

Washington at New York Giants
My pick: Washington
Fantasy X-Factor: Eli Manning – How effective will the passing game be without Plaxico? The Giants have some talented receivers, but they are young, and for the most part inexperienced. How Eli performs with the re-tooled offense will tell fantasy owners alot.

San Fransisco at Arizona
My pick: Arizona
Fantasy X-Factor: Kurt Warner – I have been skeptical about Warner since after his last good year in St. Louis he was injured, and after his decent year in New York he got injured the next season. He was dominant last year and he’s older, so I’m wary of him dropping off. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin’s value is directly tied to Warner. Leinart does not yet possess the tools to run the Arizona offense.

St. Louis at Seattle
My pick: Seattle
Fantasy X-Factor: T.J. Houshmanzadeh – He finally provides Matt Hasselbeck with the big target. Hasselbeck will have to return to pre-2007 form for the Seahawks to be a force, but with talented WRs it is possible. Can Julius Jones provide a decent running game to help?

Chicago at Green Bay
My pick: Green Bay
Fantasy X-Factor: Jay Cutler – For all the hoopla about the Bears bringing in the Pro Bowl Jay Cutler, let me remind you that his #1 wide receiver is 5’10″. The Bears gave up the 2009 1st and 3rd rd picks, 2010 1st rd pick and Kyle Orton for Cutler. That’s way too much for a guy with 0 post-season games and a season best 8-8 record (with better receivers). I don’t like the Bears offense, but Cutler might prove me wrong.

Buffalo at New England
My pick: New England
Fantasy X-Factor: Tom Brady – This is a no-brainer? How well has the knee healed and will the offense be like 2007 and 2008 without coordinator Josh McDaniels?

San Diego at Oakland
My pick: San Diego
Fantasy X-Factor: San Diego D/ST – Will the return of Shawne Merriman make the Chargers one of the most feared defenses like they were supposed to be in 2008? Also, how will the handle the running attack of Oakland?

Argument: Individual Defensive Player vs. Team Defense

Chances are most fantasy football players athletes play in standard leagues with team defenses, but is a team defense really the best option for those looking for an edge?

Last year, according to ESPN’s scoring system, the breakdown of team defenses had only 4 teams (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Tennessee) scoring more than 145 points, with 11 teams from 142 to 100 points. 17 team defenses failed to score 100 points, and chances are you probably knew someone that stuck with Lions’ defense because they were a die-hard fan never checked their fantasy team. However, team defenses offer an ease of playing for those that are casual players/not addicts. If you are lucky enough to snag a top-5 team defense it seems as though you have another starting RB or WR on your team because of the reliable production you receive. But having to constantly play the team defense roulette each week gambling and hoping that the Chiefs’ defense can shut down that pitiful insert bad team here offense, only to see them implode before you move on to the next available defense is tough to swallow.

Also according to ESPN’s IDP scoring, a total of 74 defensive players scored 100 or more points, with the highest being D’Qwell Jackson of Cleveland with 169 points. IDP scoring is usually only available in custom leagues, but for argument purpose let’s say you custom league had 10 teams with 5 IDP utility positions each. If each team got 5 of the top 50 IDP players, they would score 640 points from defense with each player averaging 128 points. Granted, it is much more difficult to manage skill players on both sides of the ball. But is Player A and Player B both know offensive players really well, but Player A knows less about defensive skill players than Player B, then it stands to reason that Player B would have a significant advantage. For those players that enjoy head-to-head matches where the scores regularly break 150 points then a custom league with IDP is probably for you.

But which league gives you the advantage? If there were 74 defensive players that scored 100 points or more last year then each team has a relatively deep free agent pool to pick from should a linebacker or defensive lineman get injured. Moreso, you have limited bench space in IDP leagues. So you have to choose how many defensive back-ups to keep on your roster and deal with bye weeks for both offense and defensive players. With team defense my philosophy is to only have one defense on my roster at all times until my defense has a bye week.

Team defenses are easy to manage and there are not as many high-scoring defenses in the free agent pool, so drafting an effective team defense provides more of an advantage than individual defensive players. Though, I’m fairly sure, that a dedicated player could probably milk the individual defensive positions for maximum scoring.

2009-10 NFL Postseason Predictions

The seedings for these predictions are based off of my divisional predictions located here: AFC East, AFC North, AFC South, AFC West, NFC East, NFC North, NFC South, NFC West.

Disclaimer: Not knowing the tiebreakers by heart, this is my best guess as to how it would fall into place.

AFC
Wildcard Round:
PIT vs. SD – PIT wins
TEN vs. NE – NE wins

Divisional Round:
BAL vs. NE – NE wins
HOU vs. PIT – HOU wins

Conference Championship:
HOU vs. NE – HOU wins

NFC
Wildcard Round:
PHI vs. ATL – PHI wins
NO vs. SF – NO wins

Divisional Round:
WAS vs. NO – NO wins
GB vs. PHI – GB wins

Conference Championship:
GB vs. NO – NO wins

Super Bowl:
HOU vs. NO – NO wins

NFC West Predictions

Another horrible division. Kurt Warner does not play the whole season due to injury and the offense once again sputters under Matt Leinart. Seattle improves with the addition of T.J. “Championship” Houshmanzadeh, but the lack of a running game continues to hurt them. Steven Jackson’s back gives out while trying to carry the entire city St. Louis. Michael Crabtree eventually signs his contract and learns that doing so earlier would have ensured that he would be prepared. Instead Josh Morgan is the best wide receiver for San Fran.

San Fransisco 49ers 10-6
Arizona Cardinals 7-9
Seattle Seahawks 6-10
St. Louis Rams 3-13

Best QB: Matt Hasselbeck, SEA
Best RB: Frank Gore, SF
Best WR: Larry Fitzgerald, ARI
Best TE: Vernon Davis, SF

Other news: Kurt Warner retires due to a back/knee injury. Steven Jackson requests to be traded after week 8.

NFC South Predictions

The addition of Tony Gonzalez bolsters an already well-balance team and for those worried about Michael Turner’s workload will place less pressure on him to do all the work in the red zone. The Saints return the most potent offense in the NFL, but a very porous defense, the addition of Malcolm Jenkins at corner will hopefully help. Tampa Bay will not make the post-season as it tries to go younger and shed some of its aging veterans.

New Orleans Saints 10-6
Atlanta Falcons 10-6
Carolina Panthers 9-7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8






Best QB: Drew Brees, NO
Best RB: Michael Turner, ATL
Best WR: Marques Colston, NO
Best TE: Tony Gonzalez, ATL

Other news: Jonathon Stewart outperforms DeAngelo Williams in Carolina. Jeremy Shockey actually catches a TD this season.

NFC North Predictions

In another horrible division, several story lines emerge. Brett Favre returns from retirement again to beat the Packers win a Super Bowl with the Vikings. Jay Cutler leaves Denver for the friendly confines of Soldier Field except this time his #1 WR is 5’11″. Calvin Johnson continues to get double and triple teamed, while Matthew Stafford keeps looking like a man that just realized he’s going to suck in the NFL.

Green Bay Packers 10-6
Minnesota Vikings 9-7
Chicago Bears 7-9
Detroit Lions 6-10

Best QB: Aaron Rodgers, GB
Best RB: Adrian Peterson, MIN
Best WR: Calvin Johnson, DET
Best TE: Greg Olsen, CHI

Other news: Chicago GM Jerry Angelo is fired for making this trade. Favre retires for real this time, but not by choice, his arm will require surgery to keep playing and won’t do it.